While many “conventional” indicators of US economic vibrancy and strength have lost their informational and predictive value over the past decade (GDP fluctuates erratically especially in Q1, employment is the lowest this century yet real wage growth is non-existent, inflation remains under the Fed’s target despite its $4.5 trillion balance sheet and so on), one indicator has remained a stubbornly fail-safe marker of economic contraction: since the 1960, every time Commercial & Industrial loan balances have declined (or simply stopped growing), whether due to tighter loan supply or declining demand, a recession was already either in progress or would start soon.
This can be seen on both the linked chart, and the one zoomed in below, which shows the uncanny correlation between loan growth and economic recession.
And while we have repeatedly documented the sharp decline in US Commercial and Industrial loan growth over the past few months (most…
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This Saturday a delegation from the White Dragon Society, including this writer, will be heading to Bougainville in the Solomon Islands to meet with King David Peii II to discuss how to reopen the Panguna mine, which contains about $170 trillion worth of gold and copper. Furthermore, there are six other mine sites under the control of King David and his people on the Island meaning that many hundreds of trillions of dollars’ worth of metal can be made available to benefit the people and living creatures of the planet earth.







